Russian Air Cargo Growth Forecast to Exceed Other Regions

03.07.2008 (16:54)

According to Denis Ilyin, senior vice president for strategy & commercial at AirBridgeCargo Airlines, airfreight growth in Russia over the next seventeen years is forecast to exceed that for North America, Europe-Middle East, intra-Europe, Europe-Africa, Europe-North America, Latin America-Europe and Latin America-North America.

In addressing the Russia & CIS Aircraft Conference, Ilyin said that global air cargo is constantly developing, and Russia will benefit strongly from the forecast average annual growth of between 5.4% and 7.1% up to 2025, eyefortransport.com reports.

He added that the development of Russian hubs in Moscow (a natural hub connecting Europe to the Middle East, Indian Subcontinent and Southeast Asia) and Krasnoyarsk in the Russian Far East (at the centre of major trade lanes connecting the US, Europe and Canada to China, Japan and Southeast Asia via cross-polar and trans-Siberian routes) will greatly support Russia's air cargo development.

According to Ilyin, Russia's role in global air logistics will increase from its current 1.4% share of the total US$80 billion global market to 8% in 2015 and 16% in 2030 - worth an estimated $8.4 billion and $25.6 billion respectively.

Cargo carried on ramp aircraft is forecast to grow at a faster rate than non-ramp aircraft. This will create many new opportunities for the Russian cargo aircraft market.

Volga-Dnepr Group, parent of AirBridgeCargo and Volga-Dnepr Airlines, estimates an 8% - 10% growth in demand for ramp aircraft up to 2020. The global fleet of 479 ramp aircraft (AN-124-100, IL-76, AN-12 and C-130 freighters) currently accounts for 1.4% of the total worldwide market.

According to Ilyin, Russian cargo airlines' share of both the scheduled and charter market using ramp aircraft is set for further rapid growth. The 1.4% share of scheduled cargo carried by Russian carriers will grow to 10% by 2020. Russia's already dominant position in the $1 billion ramp aircraft operations market will increase from the current 74% market share to 90% in twelve years' time.

By 2020, development forecasts indicate that 52 AN-124 freighters will be required to support 39% of the buoyant Russian market. Similarly, the IL-76 fleet of freighters will need to expand from 28 in 2008 to 41 by 2020 to meet demand.

Russia's scheduled cargo service market - currently supported by 21 freighters in the 10-30, 30-100 and 100+ tons categories - will require 76 freighters by 2020, including 25 Boeing 747s.

"The Russian economy has been growing steadily in recent years, creating a base for the very challenging and ambitious goals of the Russian air cargo industry in the next decade," said Ilyin. "In order to turn these plans into reality, there will be more and more freighters flying to, from and via Russia, operated by both Russian and foreign airlines."