Does rescue come in summer?
27.07.2009 (13:40)
The rapid fall in rail transits which started last autumn became the reason to update practically all of RZD’s plans for 2009. At the same time participants in this market sector hope for stabilization and traffic increases during the second half-year.
Comparing the first and the second half-years of 2008 and 2009, we can see that this year monthly loading is falling by 25-30 % to the similar months of last year. The largest fall was noticed from January to March, when confusion caused by rapidly changing currency exchange rates, together with overstocked warehouses, gave a serious shock to the transport sector and to the whole of the national economy. All main cargoes are down by 20 to 50 % every month in comparison with the months of the first half-year of 2008. Construction cargoes have reduced most of all (falling constantly by more than 45 % every month), coke (by more than 35 % per month), ferrous metals (more than 27-33 % down) and iron ore (more than 21 % monthly). Coal suffered the least (about 20 % down monthly), and oil cargoes too, where the decrease was no more than 5 %. Actually, the only growing item among the RZD’s main cargoes during the six months of 2009 was grain and grain ground products. "Stable grain transportations in the similar period of 2009 are connected, on the one hand, with a good harvest and a favorable external economic situation, and on another hand - with the active work of the grain transportation companies and the state’s interventions," Vice-President of the Russian Grain Union, Alexander Korbut, explained.
Simultaneously, according to official figures, all RZD branches achieved their first six months targets in transportation, except for Sakhalin. Especially distinguished results were shown by Southeast Railway (+2 %), Kuibyshevskaya railway (+0.8 %) and Oktyabrskaya railway (+0.6 %).
RZD’s export sector makes up to one third of all the company’s transportations. The total decrease in this sphere from January to June 2009 was less than 10% (to the first half of 2008). The fall here was generally moderate; first of all because of the large amount of raw materials exported (grain and oil). At the same time, the structure of export transportations has changed considerably. Ports have become used more frequently - here cargo transportations have grown by 1%. Simultaneously, cargo transported through overland border checkpoints has fallen by more than 20 %. In the opinion of analysts there are several reasons for this tendency. The first reason why movements through ports grew is that long-term delivery agreements concluded before crisis were still effective, states Dmitry Baranov, the Leading Expert from "Finam Management". "Secondly, water transport is cheaper, and in conditions of crisis and the struggle to keep the remaining clients, the question of the price is of special importance. Thirdly, warehouses in ports were full of stocks of export cargo, which were remaining there because at the beginning of the crisis many buyers refused to take them. However later they agreed to carry them away, so they started to move them, and this also provided ports with cargoes," he explained.
It is necessary to note, that by the end of the first semi-annual period, transportations volumes started to improve again in June – and the graphs of almost all cargo items in the charts became positive. First class cargoes were up 6.2 %, third-class by 5 %. A fall (-1.7 %) was shown only in second-class cargoes. RZD’s Trademark Transport Service Center (CFTO) explains this tendency by seasonal peculiarities. "For example, oil and liquid oil cargoes have gone down by 0.6 %, caused by river transport activity. The fall in fertilizers of 12 % too was quite expected, because the period of their application on the ground was finishing, and therefore exports also shrank,” experts from RZD say. Also, coal, which is one of RZD network’s leading cargo items, has shown a growth in loading of 5.7 % in comparison with last year, for the first time within the first half of the year. Sources in the company explain this, first of all, by the fact that leading coal sector enterprises "Mechel" and SUEK have managed to conclude delivery contracts with companies in the Asian region. Due to this, coal trans-shipment though Russia’s eastern ports will be growing steadily for the next few months.
The uneasy economic situation forces participants to look ahead with great care. Actually, each company has a few scenarios for the development of their business. RZD is a main carrier, and therefore not an exception. The president of the company, Vladimir Yakunin, repeatedly mentioned that, before the New Year, a few scenarios were developed in RZD for 2009. Today the most pessimistic of them is taking place. According to it, by the end of the year the company predicts a more modest fall in freight traffic, than was observed until recently – by only 19 %. Experts do not exclude the possibility that the company can achieve this due to better figures in the summer.
Maria Shevchenko
Print version
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